ENTOURAGE

Zelensky heads up a European swarm on Washington

Modern theoretical physics tells us that it is possible for something to emerge out of nothing. Hence, the ‘Big Bang’ theory of the universe.

Last week nothing happened in Alaska, yet it seems to have set off a sort of ‘Big Bang’ across Europe. The shockwave is so violent that Vlodomyr Zelensky has been sent reeling across the Atlantic to Washington, accompanied by an entourage of European leaders in what one can only assume is some sort of emotional support posse.

The delegation consist of Zelensky himself, Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany, Keir Starmer of the ‘Yookay’, Georgia Meloni of Italy, Alexander Stubb of Finland, EU Commission Head, Ursula Van Der Leyen and Mark Rutte, general secretary of NATO. Here they are all huddled around Trump’s desk in the Oval Office:

So, what incited all these European nabobs to drop everything, rip up their busy August schedules (in the case of Starmer, he actually cancelled his summer holiday) and make for the Whitehouse? We’ll come onto that.

But what are they hoping to achieve? What do they want from Donald Trump? Well, at this stage, there is merely speculation and rumours but, according to the US press:

"We're going to be discussing it today, but we will give them very good protection, very good security," Trump said.

The president later confirmed that Putin said Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine.

Trump didn't go quite as far as special envoy Steve Witkoff, who told CNN that Russia agreed to "Article 5-like" protections. Article 5 is the agreement of collective defense among NATO nations stating an attack against one member is considered an attack against them all.

So, some manner of ‘security guarantees’ that stop short of full NATO protections? Not sure how much difference it makes but it certainly implies that Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions. Otherwise why bother with further guarantees for the rest of Ukraine?

There are also whispers of a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky to be confirmed at some later date and some more American weapons for Ukraine, though entirely paid for by the EU countries. Nothing is being said, at least not publicly, about Ukraine conceding any territory to Russia. This is a taboo, the reddest of red lines, even though everyone knows it is now all but inevitable that they will have to.

On the face of it, the parties don’t sound too far apart. The Europeans want a ceasefire first followed by a final peace agreement. The Russians want a final peace agreement followed by a ceasefire. It’s a chasm of difference. The Russians believe that NATO will use a ceasefire as an opportunity to insert troops (not just from NATO countries but also from Australia and even Japan) into Ukraine with new weapons so that the hostilities can be continued. This is almost certainly true. The Ukrainians and the EU leaders (and Trump) realise that a peace agreement means Ukraine ceding land to Russia before a ceasefire. This is also certainly true.

And this is what lies beneath the panicked-stricken flight to Washington; the fear that Europe’s political class may not survive a defeat in Ukraine. Losing wars comes with consequences and losing big wars come with major consequences.

NATO covers a population of 1 billion and is responsible for around 55% of all the entire world’s defence spending. Being defeated By Russia would shatter forever the West’s reputation of invincibility and the political leaders of the West could well lose their Mandate of Heaven. That may have devastating consequences for them in the long - or even the medium - run.

Starmer, Macron and Co are not in Washington trying to save Ukraine; they’re in Washington trying to save themselves.